The Chinese equity market rose a touch overnight. The offshore dollar/yuan fell a freckle. Gold in yuan fell a freckle.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong fell over half a percent on Friday while the US was on vacation. Japanese equities rose a freckle. JGB yields fell 1 bp to 1.43%. The dol/yen jumped a percent on Thursday and then gave back a touch on Friday.

European equity markets were off a percent on Friday while US markets were closed. German 10yr yields fell 2 bps to 2.56%. The eur/dol fell a touch on Thursday but then recovered most of that on Friday while the US was closed.

Over in the US, the equity futures were off a touch ahead of the open. The dollar was a little firmer vs. other colored paper. Gold was up a couple bucks, and yields were lower. Then we got the June jobs report...

According to the Labor Department, 147,000 nonfarm payrolls were created in June, which was well above the 110,000 consensus. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.

Now, if you believe this data, which I don't, you're still looking at most of the new jobs being added being government jobs, which we were supposedly DOGE-ing out of existence I thought?

In any event, the reaction was an immediate pop in the S&Ps. The dollar bounced big. Gold slumped $40 to as low as $3311. Yields rose.

The S&Ps opened up about half a percent and immediately began to rally. When the services ISM came in exactly inline with the consensus at 50.8, the S&Ps barely even stopped for a breather and continued to higher. The employment component of this data set interestingly fell to 47.2, which puts it in contraction along with the manufacturing ISM. So were are these new jobs coming from if we're also shrinking government jobs?

The S&Ps continued to work higher for the rest of the session to go out on the best levels of the day with a gain of nearly a percent to a new all-timer.

Volume was light. Breadth was over 2 to 1 positive on NYSE and over 2 to 1 positive on the NASDAQ. New highs swamped new lows on the NYSE (186 to 7), and new highs swamped new lows on the NASDAQ (317 to 37).

Stocks Were Higher:

Stocks were mostly higher in no particular pattern.

The XHB homebuilding ETF fell over a percent, and BLDR fell half a percent.

Positions: I made no changes to my shorts in SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, ARKK, XHB, and BLDR.

Commodities Were Lower:

Brent crude rose half a percent. Natural gas fell a touch. The oil stocks were mixed, with the oil and gas ETFs all ending up or down by less than a percent. The uranium equities backed off, with the URNM losing half a percent.

Copper fell over a percent and fell another percent on Friday. Other base metals were lower too, with the DBB base metals ETF losing a touch. The copper stocks were lower too, with the COPX losing a touch. The steel stocks were higher, with the SLX picking up half a percent. The XME metals and mining ETF was flat.

Palladium fell 2 percent. Platinum slumped 4 percent but then recovered about half of that on Friday.

Silver traded up to a new high for the week overnight and then slumped with gold on the jobs data, but unlike gold, silver recovered and closed up nearly a percent and added another touch on Friday too.

The silver/gold ratio surged back to its high for the year and the 200 dma and broke its downtrend since 2024. A move higher on Monday would break out this ratio from a cup and handle on the charts.

The CCI equal-weighted commodity index ETF (GCC) fell a touch. The energy-heavy DBC commodity ETF fell a freckle. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (DJP) fell a touch.

Gold Slumped:

Spot gold traded up to a marginal new high for the week overnight and to as high as $3365 before moving back to only up a touch ahead of the jobs data.

When the jobs data came in better than the consensus and the dollar bounced big, the yellow metal was clubbed initially for about $40 to as low as $3312. That collapse marked the low of the day, and the metal would rebound back up to $3337 before settling back out at $3327 for a loss of over half a percent.

The metal would however firm up on Friday to as high as $3340.

Gold Stocks Rallied Despite Beating The Metal Took:

The GDX opened down inside of yesterday's range and tagged the 5 dma, which marked the low of the day. From there, the GDX would firm to go out on the highs with a gain of half a percent. Volume was light, but the GDX did once again close above the 5 dma, which leaves the bulls firmly in charge.

The GDX/GLD ratio surged over a percent.

The silver stocks were firmer inline with the gold names. The SIL rose a percent. The SILJ rose a touch, and the GDXJ rose a touch as well.

Real yields were higher, and nominal yields were higher too. The yield curve flattened a little per the 2/10 spread, which attacked the uptrend since December. The dollar was a little firmer vs. other paper but gave back most of those gains by the close and gave back more on Friday. The dollar's pop clearly weighed on gold on Thursday.

Well, I was dead wrong about the jobs data, but the action wasn't so bad despite that. Given that better action, my bet is that the dollar's bounce isn't going to last long, and we should soon see it take out that long-term uptrend since 2011, perhaps even early next week.

I still think we are looking at silver making new highs soon and potentially the GDX as well. Gold is probably still stuck in a trading range, but I don't think there's huge downside there.

In addition to signing the Big Beautiful Monster into law, Trump announced on Friday that letters would be going out to trading partners ahead of the July 9th deadline, and that tariffs would be going up on anyone that didn't have a deal on August 1st (which is pretty much everyone except for the UK).

Given that tariff news has been dollar bearish and bullish for the metals and the miners, I would assume this news would seen as another excuse to push the metals higher and the dollar lower.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Long AGQ & GDXU. I sold my SLV 33.5 calls for today early after the open for a push (the 34s went poof), and late in the day I bought SLV 34 calls for 8 cents for Monday.

The Dollar Was Firmer vs. Other Paper:

The dollar bounced vs. other paper. The dollar index bounced a third of a percent and then gave a good chunk of that back on Friday.

"The" BTC ETF (IBIT) fell a touch. MSTR, COIN, RIOT and other BTC derivatives were mixed.

Positions: Long IBIT (last add was to double the position on April 4th at 47.03).

Treasury Yields Were Higher Again:

Treasury yields rose 7 bps in the long end, which left the 10yr yield at 4.35%.

The 2/10 spread narrowed a little and attacked its uptrend since December. As the curve steepens after being inverted for an extended period of time, we typically start to see things go awry in the equity market ahead of a recession (like we are now). That will bring on Fed easing eventually, which is what gold wants, but not just yet.

Yields in the Fed sensitive 2yr jumped 10 bps to 3.89%. Junk debt bounced a little, with the HYG picking up a freckle. LQD, which is the investment grade corp bond ETF, fell a touch. MUB, the muni ETF, fell a freckle.

To Sum Things Up:

The Big Beautiful Monster was signed into law on Friday, and Trump threatened the return of reciprocal tariffs too. So, obviously Monday's action could be interesting...

REMAIN FLEXIBLE