The Chinese equity market fell a freckle overnight. The offshore Gold in yuan rose half a percent and was a little higher in all the other major currencies as well.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong fell over a percent. Japanese equities fell nearly 2 percent. JGB yields fell 3 bps to 2.09%. The dol/yen rose a freckle.

European equity markets hung around on either side of the unchanged mark again this morning. German 10yr yields rose 2 bps to 2.83%. The eur/dol fell a hair to a new low for the move since the December high.

Over in the US, the equity futures were off a touch ahead of the open. The dollar was a little weaker vs. other colored paper for no particular reason. Gold was off 25 bucks for no particular reason, and silver was down nearly 4 percent again and attacking its uptrend since November. Other metals were also down across the board again too. Yields were a little lower.

The S&Ps opened down a touch and basically chopped sideways all day to eventually go out virtually unchanged in what was a very unremarkable session.

Volume was light again. Breadth was over 2 to 1 positive on the NYSE and slightly positive on the NASDAQ. New highs swamped new lows on the NYSE (164 to 28), and new highs swamped new lows on the NASDAQ (241 to 73).

Stocks Were Higher:

Stocks were mostly higher in particular pattern.

Positions: Short XHB and BLDR, and short SPY, QQQ, IWM, and MDY.

Commodities Were Mixed:

Brent crude jumped 4 percent, which appeared to be the result of the commodity index rebalancing. Natural gas slumped 5 percent. The oil stocks rebounded, with the oil and gas ETFs all picking up 1 to 4 percent. The uranium equities slipped, with the URNM losing half a percent. Rare earth trash slipped, with the REMX ETF losing 3 percent from yesterday’s new high.

Copper slumped but then recovered to end virtually flat (perhaps a result of the rebalancing?). Other base metals were also lower, with the DBB base metals ETF losing half a percent. The copper stocks were lower too, with the COPX losing a third of a percent. The steel stocks were lower as well, with the SLX losing half a percent. The XME metals and mining ETF lost a touch.

Palladium began the day lower but ended up a percent. Platinum began the day lower but recovered most of its losses to end down half a percent.

Silver tanked about 4 percent to test its uptrend since November, but like most metals, it then cut that loss by the close to just over a percent.

The silver/gold ratio fell 2 percent.

The CCI equal-weighted commodity index ETF (GCC) rebounded half a percent. The energy-heavy DBC commodity ETF rose over a percent. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (DJP) was flat.

Gold Slipped And The Rebounded:

Spot gold tumbled nearly $50 to as low as $4405 overnight. After a rally back up to around $4430 for the US open, the metal then firmed further (despite a rally in the dollar) and eventually squirted higher in the final hour of the equity session to go out on the best levels of the day at $4478 for a gain of half a percent.

Gold Stocks Slipped But Recovered:

The GDX opened down again for a second day in a row and bottomed out just below the 5 dma. As the metals began to bounce, the GDX bounced too. After cutting its loss to a around a percent and chopping sideways for most of the day, the GDX then took off in the final hour as gold and other metals squirted higher, and the GDX would go out on the highs with a gain of half a percent. Volume was light once again, but the GDX closed above the 5 dma, which leaves the bulls statistically in charge.

The GDX/GLD ratio fell a freckle.

The silver stocks were weaker than the gold names. The SIL fell a touch. The SILJ fell a percent, and the GDXJ rose half a percent.

Real yields were higher, and nominal yields were higher too. The yield curve was little changed per the 2/10 spread. The dollar began the day weaker but then firmed, with the DXY attacking its 200 dma intraday. Gold once again seemed to ignore the dollar, for now.

I’m not sure how much of today’s action was related to the rebalancing noise, but that should all be over at this point. So, if we’ve been seeing real selling over the past couple days, it should continue tomorrow.

Silver has obviously been much weaker than gold, and the miners are flashing all kinds of divergences on the charts too.

What does it all mean? I still suspect we may be seeing a continuation of the correction that began from the December high, with lower highs occurring in gold and silver and a double top in GDX.

I suspect a big move may be coming tomorrow, but again, I think it will be to the downside. If I’m wrong about that though, then gold and the miners should sprint to new highs very soon.

Tomorrow we’ll get the December jobs data, and we may also hear from the Supreme Court on Trump’s tariffs. There’s also a decent chance that we may get Trump’s Fed chair nominee announcement too.

My gold model doesn’t have all its data in yet, but I suspect it moved to a Tier 1 SELL (check back later).

Positions: I bought some ZSL (2x short silver) in the afternoon. Long GDXD, GLD 393 puts for Friday and GDX 85 puts for Friday. If GDX and silver take off tomorrow, I will be quick to punt these inverse ETFs.

As always, I post all of my trades as Intraday Comments for subscribers in real time.

The Dollar Was Firmer:

The dollar was firmer vs. other paper again for seemingly no reason. The dollar index rose a touch to another new high for the move since the late December low and attacked its 200 dma intraday. Note the 50 dma has crossed the 200 dma quietly to the upside with nearly nobody talking about it. Again, I don’t know why the dollar isn’t going down, but the fact that it isn’t is catching my attention.

"The" BTC ETF (IBIT) fell a touch. MSTR, COIN, RIOT and other BTC derivatives were mixed.

Positions: Long IBIT (last add was to double the position on April 4th at 47.03).

Treasury Yields Were Little Changed:

Treasury yields rose 2 bps in the long end, which left the 10yr yield at 4.17%.

The 2/10 spread narrowed a little.

Yields in the Fed sensitive 2yr rose 2 bps to 3.49%. Junk debt was little changed, with the HYG adding a freckle. LQD, which is the investment grade corp bond ETF, fell a touch. MUB, the muni ETF, fell a hair.

To Sum Things Up:

Trump could announce the next Fed chair at any moment (Polymarket shows Hassett and Warsh still neck and neck), and while I’m not sure how stocks would react to either of those, I suspect the dollar would favor Warsh.

Tomorrow we’ll get the December jobs data and perhaps a decision from the Supreme Court on Trump’s tariffs.

REMAIN FLEXIBLE