Not a whole lot happened until we got to the FOMC. Once the FOMC statement hit the tape though, things began to move...

As expected, we got our 25 bp rate cut, but unexpectedly, the Fed also announced $40 bln per month in t-bill purchases (quasi-QE). Additional easing was also not ruled out, although it wasn't promised either.

As for the reaction, stock popped. The dollar collapsed. Gold, silver, and the GDX all popped. Yields fell but more so in the short end, which caused the curve to steepen.

PowPow's presser was mostly a snoozer, and by the close pretty much everything was on the highs as the dollar and yields went out on the lows.

The S&Ps would pick up half a percent, and homebuilding trash popped on the decline in yields, even though rates didn't drop much in the 10yr area. XHB would pop 3%, while, BLDR rose 4%.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, IWM< MDY, XHB, and BLDR

Commodities were nearly higher across the board, as were the commodity producing equities.

Gold & silver both popped, and silver continued to outperform, with the silver/gold ratio breaking out to another new multiyear high. The GDX also popped and once again surged relative to gold to pick up nearly 2 percent. The GDX also once again closed above the 5 dma, which leaves the bulls firmly in charge.

As you will see below, I leaned long ahead of the FOMC, and with the dollar breaking down today in reaction to the FOMC and likely headed for a dumper into year-end, I think we've got a good shot (although not guaranteed) of gold taking out the $4260 spot level and surging towards a new high in the coming days, which means silver will probably do even better. That goes for the GDX too, where the GDX/GLD ratio is probably due for a new high.

I don't think we need to make this all that complicated. Basically, the consensus was expecting a hawkish hike, and while PowPow did signal that additional easing wasn't guaranteed (data dependency), he didn't take it off the table, and the quasi-QE was a pretty big signal that overwhelmed anything remotely hawkish. Plus, we all know that Trump's next Fed chair nominee is going to be uber-dovish when PowPow exits in May.

So, with the Fed now behind us with no damage done and year-end just 21 days away, the path of least resistance is probably higher given that the metals and miners are all right on their highs and the dollar looks to sell off into year-end (and we know how people like to chase winners into the end of the year).

My gold model remained on a Tier 1 SELL, but it has typically taken a Trifecta SELL (sometimes for several days) in order to trigger a pullback lately.

Positions: I bought GDXU on the opening slide and then I doubled it on the brief pullback we had after the FOMC before the surge into the close. I also bought GDX 87 calls for Friday for 8.5 cents on the opening pullback. As always, I post all these trades in real time for subscribers.

The dollar was weaker, with the DXY making a new low for the month, and we'll likely see the 50 dma now pull away from the 200 dma in the DXY, as it careens back to the lows into year-end.

IBIT slipped half a percent, as BTC continues to be unloved for the time being.

Positions: Long IBIT (I don't trade this one)

Yields fell, but they mostly fell in the short-end, with the 2/10 spread moving back to near its high for the year, as the curve continues to steepen.